This Week’s Market Commentary

This holiday-shortened week is pretty light in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are only three economic reports scheduled and none of them are considered to be highly important to the financial or mortgage markets.

Accordingly, there is a decent possibility of seeing a relatively calm week in the mortgage market, assuming that the stock markets do the same.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. March’s Housing Starts is the first data, coming early Tuesday morning. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking starts of new home construction and the number of permits issued for future starts.

This data usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show an increase in construction starts of new homes. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a decline in home starts, indicating housing sector weakness.

Wednesday’s only data is March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors. This report also gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets, but can influence mortgage pricing if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a drop in home resales because a soft housing sector makes a broader economic recovery difficult. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in sales between February and March. The larger the increase, the worse the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The third and final report of the week will be posted late Thursday morning when the Conference Board releases their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March. This data attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. This is considered to be a moderately important report, so we may see a slight movement in rates as a result of this report. It is expected to show an increase of 0.2%, meaning it is predicting slight growth in economic activity over the next several months. A smaller increase, or a decline would be considered good news for the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates.
The bond market will close early Thursday and will remain closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. The stock markets will be open Thursday for a full day of trading, but will also be closed Friday.

The markets will reopen for regular hours Monday morning. The early close and Friday holiday may lead to some volatility in bonds Thursday afternoon as investors protect themselves over the long weekend. I don’t believe that this volatility will necessarily impact mortgage rates, but the possibility does exist, especially if the preceding days were active.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week with no key economic data or other events scheduled. A good part of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. If stocks fall, we could see mortgage rates move lower the next few days. There is nothing on the agenda that is of much concern, but keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate as conditions can change at any time.

The Complicated World of Credit Scores

Lenders use different credit scores for different purchases.

If you have successfully navigated a website that offers to sell you your credit score, you may think you have all the information you need in order to apply for a loan or new credit card.

Not necessarily. The score you received could be quite different from what a lender receives. Different scores are offered for mortgages, car loans, insurance and more.

Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act that took effect January 1, lenders must either tell those who apply for credit what score was used, or tell them how it was used if the applicant doesn’t receive the best terms available.

Here are some reasons why a credit score (a number between 300 and 850) still won’t tell you how a lender evaluates of you:

* Some lenders give the best rates to people with a score of 740, others may use 760 or higher. Some give credit to people with scores in the high 500s, but others require 620 or more.

* Credit scores don’t reflect whether you are making good financial decisions or poor ones.
If you refinance your home at a lower interest rate, inquiries could show up on your report. Inquiries lower a score.

* Late payments show up on your score for a couple of years, but paying down a high balance has an immediately beneficial impact.

* If you pay your credit card bill in full every month, you don’t get a zero balance on your credit report. The report shows the balance at the end of the billing period, before the payment.

* Rather than checking your score frequently, you are better off making sure the information on your report is correct. Make your payments on time and reduce monthly balances for a month or two before applying for a loan or mortgage.

Time to Buy a New Home?

Today, you can get all of what you need and most of what you want.

When it comes to fine kitchens, more bedrooms, storage space, and great features, your chance of getting them all is better than in many previous years. How about a deck and a sunroom?

The recent Housing Affordability Index by the National Association of Realtors is 173.8, or about 40 points lower than in 2008.

How to Qualify

The average price for a single-family home in the index is $170,300. To qualify for that purchase at an interest rate of 5.09 percent, buyers would only need a family income of $34,512.

Another interesting way to look at affordability was shown recently in The Wall Street Journal. The Journal reported that the cost of a home now is equivalent to about 19 months of total income for an average family. Previously, home prices averaged about 24 months of an individual or family income. That means more buyers can afford a home right now.

While the affordability numbers are a good indication, the number of available homes is also a plus. Home buyers can find many in their price range to choose from. Why should they pay high rents when they could be accumulating equity?

What Mortgage Brokers Say

Home ownership is a smart choice when you have reached a stable situation in your life. According to mortgage brokers, that means you have decided on a life path and are taking steps to achieve it, and your income is secure.

When you aren’t moving to another city in the next several years, and you have savings for a down payment, you are ready to move forward with your housing plans.

An idealized vision of how life should be will help you choose a home, but the mortgage brokers say the basic facts to justify The American Dream should be in place.